The African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer) exhibits substantial morphological variability (Skinner and Chimimba 2005), resulting in controversies regarding the recognition of the various subspecies (Smitz et al. 2013). Recent evidence supports the separation of two distinct groups, corresponding to a West and Central African group and an East and Southern African group (Smitz et al. 2013). The East and Southern African group is comprised of a single subspecies (Syncerus caffer caffer), which is found in the assessment region. The West and Central African group is assigned to two or three subspecies (S. c. nanus, S. c. brachyceros and S. c. aequinoctialis), although the latter two of these subspecies are not recognised by all authorities (Le Roex et al. 2012, Smitz et al. 2013).

The West African Savannah Buffalo, S. c. brachyceros (from Senegal to Cameroon) and the Central African Savannah Buffalo, S. c. aequinoctialis (from Central Africa to Sudan) are morphologically intermediate between S. c. caffer (Southern Savannah Buffalo) and S. c. nanus (Forest Buffalo) (Skinner and Chimimba 2005). Forest Buffalo are adapted to forest life, having a smaller size, unobtrusive swept back horns and a red to reddish-brown colouration, and are restricted to West Africa (Skinner and Chimimba 2005). Southern Savannah Buffalo are about twice the size of Forest Buffalo, with large downward curved horns and a brownish to black colouration (Smitz et al. 2013). The taxonomic uncertainty in these four subspecies is corroborated by the observation of interbreeding and intermediate phenotypes in contact zones between all four subspecies (Prins 1996), and at least one reported cross between S. c. caffer and S. c. nanus (Smitz et al. 2013). Based on recent genetic results, S. c. brachyceros and S. c. aequinoctialis would be included in S. c. nanus following standard nomenclature rules (Smitz et al. 2013). Evidence suggests that buffalo populations in Uganda and the Central African Republic display the highest genetic diversity of all African Buffalo populations and this could be the region where the most overlap exists between the two main groups (S. c. nanus and S. c. caffer) (Smitz et al. 2013). Analysis of 766 mtDNA sequences from 43 localities indicates that S. c. caffer is found in Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa and Namibia (Smitz et al. 2013).

African Buffalo is listed as Near Threatened because the estimated and predicted decline over 3 generations (28 years) from 1999 to 2027 is very close to the threshold for Vulnerable under criterion A4 and under one scenario may have already crossed this threshold.

Cornélis et al. (2014) estimated the numbers of savanna buffalo at >513,000, representing an overall decline of 18% over 15 years, 1999-2014, when compared to the figures estimated by East (1999). Estimates for the three Savanna Buffalo subspecies were: Syncerus caffer aequinoctialis >23,00 (-61% since East 1999); S. c. brachyceros: >17,000 (-15%); S. c. caffer: >473,000 (-14%). There are very few figures are available for Forest Buffalo, but it is suspected to be declining across its range due to forest loss and high rates of bushmeat extraction.

African Buffalo numbers were already declining in the 1990s (East 1999) so the rates of decline over the last 3 generations (28 years) must have been higher than the figures shown above, though it is difficult to estimate a precise figure because the rate of decline pre-1999 is unknown. Buffalo numbers are predicted to continue to decline because of ongoing poaching for meat, habitat conversion, and expansion of human and domestic livestock populations. Extrapolating the current estimated decline (1999-2014) into the future over 3 generations (1999-2027), and under three scenarios, produces the following figures: 

• Savanna buffalo (S. c. caffer, S. c. aequinoctialis, S. c. brachyceros) - 1999: 627,000 individuals; 2014: 513,000 individuals; 2027: predicted 431,000 individuals = -31.2%.
• Savanna (as above) + forest buffalo S.c. nanus (assuming -15% for forest buffalo) - 1999: 687,000 individuals; 2014: 569,000 individuals; 2027: predicted 483,000 individuals = -29.7%.
• Savanna (as above) + forest buffalo (assuming no decline for forest buffalo) - 1999: 687,000 individuals; 2014: 573,000 individuals; 2027: predicted 490,000 individuals = -28.7%.

These rates of decline are very close to the threshold for Vulnerable and one of them just exceeds it. Moreover, these calculations assume a linear rate of decline, whereas the decline may be expected to accelerate, especially in view of the growing threats and projections for human population growth.

In the longer term, large, healthy populations of African Buffalo will need to persist in well protected national parks, reserves and hunting zones across Africa to prevent its status from deteriorating further.

The African Buffalo once occurred across most of sub-Saharan Africa. There is no palaeontological evidence of the presence of the species in North Africa or in the Nile Valley north of Khartoum (Prins and Sinclair 2013). In North Africa, aurochs Bos primigenius, the progenitor of domestic cattle, occupied a similar niche and perhaps prevented the buffalo’s spread to the north (Cornélis et al. 2014). Rainfall is a limiting factor and African Buffalo generally occupy areas with annual rainfall above 250 mm and where herbaceous forage is available (Cornélis et al. 2014).

African Buffalo populations have undergone a severe reduction in size and geographical distribution since the 19th century, as a result of anthropogenic impacts (land conversion, poaching, disease outbreaks) and climatic events such as droughts (Cornélis et al. 2014). Around 70% of savanna buffalo populations are confined to a patchwork of protected areas and surrounding hunting zones (East 1999). During the 20th century, the distribution has been actively reduced in several countries by culling and veterinary fences, in efforts to limit the transmission of pathogens, such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and trypanosomiasis, to cattle (Taylor and Martin 1987).

Forest Buffalo (S. c. nanus)
This subspecies has a disjunct distribution: one area in the rainforest belt of West Africa and another in Lower Guinea Forest and Congo Basin (Cornélis et al. 2014). Both areas of distribution are mainly located in areas with an annual rainfall >1,500 mm, in transition zones between dense tropical forests and savanna ecosystems (East 1999). In West Africa, forest buffalo are distributed from Guinea-Bissau to south-west Ghana. In Central Africa, they occur in southern Nigeria, southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, south and south-west Central African Republic, western Uganda, western Rwanda and possibly north-west Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Republic of Congo and Gabon. About 75% of the population lives in and around protected areas in Cameroon, Central African Republic, Gabon, Democratic Republic of Congo and Republic of Congo. In both areas of distribution, numbers have declined substantially due to poaching and deforestation (East 1999), but their status is generally poorly known (Cornélis et al. 2014). They became extinct on Bioko Island (Equatorial Guinea) sometime between 1860 and 1910 (Butynski et al. 1997).

West African Savanna Buffalo (S. c. brachyceros)
This subspecies still occurs locally in the Sahelo-Sudanian zone, occupying savannas and gallery forests, from south-eastern Senegal, northern Ivory Coast, southern Burkina Faso, northern Ghana and Benin, extreme south of Niger, Nigeria (very locally), northern Cameroon and a small area of the Central African Republic (East 1999).

Central African Savanna Buffalo (S. c. aequinoctialis)
This subspecies still occurs locally in the Sahelo-Sudanian zone of Central Africa: south-east Chad, northern Central African Republic (East of the Chari River), northern Democratic Republic of Congo, south-east Sudan and western Ethiopia (East 1999). It is now extinct in Eritrea.

Cape Buffalo (S. c. caffer)
Cape Buffalo occurs in south-western Ethiopia (particularly Omo N.P.), southern Somalia and northern Kenya southwards to South Africa. It is patchily distributed throughout East Africa, southwards to Zambia, Malawi, some parts of Mozambique (small populations south of the Zambezi river with most in the north of the country), Niassa Reserve and Cabo Delgado areas (Skinner and Chimimba 2005); north-eastern Namibia (mainly eastern and western Caprivi and an introduced population in the Waterberg Plateau Park, central Namibia), Botswana (north of 20°S, Okavango Delta, Moremi Game Reserve and Chobe N.P.), and Zimbabwe (Hwange N.P., Matabeleland, Zambezi Valley, and Gonarezhou National Park; Skinner and Chimimba 2005). Small populations of Cape Buffalo still survive in some areas of south-east Angola (Cornélis et al. 2014). In South Africa, Cape buffalo have been reintroduced to some areas from which they were formerly extirpated. They are currently widely distributed in Kruger N.P. and smaller populations persist in KwaZuluNatal and in many private reserves; the current population in Swaziland is a reintroduction (Cornélis et al. 2014).

Aerial counts have been widely used for 60 years to count African Buffalo, but this method is subject to a number of biases (East 1999, Cornélis et al. 2014). East (1999) summed country counts for the three savanna buffalo subspecies and estimated a total of >627,000 (aequinoctialis: >59,000; brachyceros: >20,000; caffer: >548,000). He then applied a correction factor of 1.2 for undercounting in aerial surveys and assumed average densities where no figures were available to produce an estimate of 830,000, while acknowledging the lack of precision and suggesting the population size lay between 500,00 and 1,000,000. Survey data were (and are) unavailable for forest buffalo, and East (1999) estimated average densities of 0.03/km² where known to be common and 0.03 where uncommon and produced a rough estimate of 60,000, a figure he suggested was likely to be conservative.

Cornélis et al. (2014) updated the figures for the savanna buffalo by country and protected area according to the latest available data and produced a total estimate of >513,000, representing an overall decline of 18% during 1999-2014 when compared to East’s figure. Subspecies totals were: aequinoctialis >23,00 (-61% since East 1999); brachyceros: >17,000 (-15%); caffer: >473,000 (-14%).

The same caveats (undercounting bias and unavailability of figures for many areas) also apply to the later figures as they do to the earlier ones, but they have been derived on broadly the same basis and provide an indication of trends. The decline in Central African savanna buffalo is particularly marked and influenced by war and unrest and governance issues in Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Sudan (Cornélis et al. 2014). West African savanna buffalo populations show contrasting trends across sites and countries. For example, substantial investments in the WAP complex of protected areas (Benin, Burkina Faso and Niger) appear to have increased the effectiveness of management, while Comoe N.P. (Ivory Coast) and Niokolo N.P. (Senegal) have seen their buffalo populations fall by 90% (Cornélis et al. 2014). Syncerus c. caffer appears stable across much of its range and the lower figure may be due mainly to a decline in Tanzania (Cornélis et al. 2014).

Very few figures are available for Forest Buffalo but it is suspected to be declining across its range. Forest loss in West Africa has been far higher than in Central Africa (Christie et al. 2007, Norris et al. 2010, Hansen et al. 2013) and rates of bushmeat extraction are high and increasing.

Adding 60,000 Forest Buffalo to the 513,000 estimated by Cornélis et al. 2014 gives a total figure of 573,000. If this subspecies (nanus) declined at 15% (i.e., showing similar to declines to those of brachyceros and caffer) in 1999-2014, its population would be roughly 56,000. Thus a very approximate global estimate of the buffalo population is 569,000-573,000 (398,000-401,000 mature individuals).

African Buffalo numbers were already declining in the 1990s (East 1999), so the rates of decline over the last 3 generations (28 years) must have been higher than the figures shown above, though it is difficult to estimate a precise figure because the rate of decline pre-1999 is unknown.

Buffalo numbers are predicted to continue to decline because of ongoing poaching for meat, habitat conversion, and expansion of human and domestic livestock populations. Extrapolating the current estimated decline (1999-2014) into the future over 3 generations (1999-2027), and under three scenarios, produces the following figures: 

• Savanna buffalo (S.c. caffer, S.c. aequinoctialis, S.c. brachyceros) - 1999: 627,000 individuals; 2014: 513,000 individuals; 2027: predicted 431,000 individuals = -31.2%.
• Savanna (as above) + forest buffalo S.c. nanus (assuming -15% for forest buffalo) - 1999: 687,000 individuals; 2014: 569,000 individuals; 2027: predicted 483,000 individuals = -29.7%.
• Savanna (as above) + forest buffalo (assuming no decline for forest buffalo) - 1999: 687,000 individuals; 2014: 573,000 individuals; 2027: predicted 490,000 individuals = -28.7%.

These rates of decline are very close to, or perhaps already over, the threshold for threatened status. Moreover, these calculations assume a linear rate of decline, but the decline may be expected to actually accelerate, especially in view of the threats and projections for human population growth.

African Buffalo inhabit a wide range of habitats, including semi-arid bushland, Acacia woodland, miombo Brachystegia woodland, montane grasslands and forest (to elevations well over 4,000 m asl), coastal savannas, and moist lowland rainforests. They are absent only from deserts and sub-deserts, such as the Namib/Kalahari, the arid Horn of Africa and the Saharan/Sahelian transition zone (Prins and Sinclair 2013, Cornélis et al. 2014).

Habitat loss due to expansion of settlements and agriculture, livestock grazing and forest clearance is a major threat outside protected areas (and encroachment occurs where protection is ineffective). Buffalo are favoured target of meat hunters in many countries, and poaching has been a major contributor to the recent decline of many buffalo populations, including in some national parks. War and civil unrest especially in Central Africa over the last 30 years has had – and continues to have – a negative effect. Buffalo are susceptible to drought, which has caused substantial declines in some populations in the Sahel at the end of the 1960s and during the 1990s in Tsavo, Serengeti/Mara, Gonarezhou and Kruger also strongly impacted buffalo populations (East 1999, Cornélis et al. 2014).

African Buffalo are susceptible to a range of indigenous and imported infectious diseases. In the past, numbers of African Buffalo suffered their most severe collapse during the great rinderpest epidemic of the 1890s, which, coupled with pleuro-pneumonia, caused mortalities as high as 95% among livestock and wild ungulates (Winterbach 1998). Rinderpest was declared eradicated in Africa in 2011 (Morens et al. 2011).

African Buffalo is a favoured target for bushmeat hunters. It is also a prized target for trophy hunters, especially in southern Africa. The species is bred on many game farms and traded; large bulls fetch a high price.

About 70-75% of buffalo populations occur in and around protected areas (East 1999), and the future status of this species is closely linked to effective protected areas and well-managed hunting zones.

In 2012 there were 166 Cape Buffalo and 135 forest buffalo in captivity (Cornélis et al. 2014). In addition, large numbers of Cape Buffalo (ca 26,000) are maintained on game farms in South Africa (Cornélis et al. 2014).