While some researchers have proposed species status for both Northern (Ceratotherium simum cottoni) and Southern White Rhinoceros (hereafter White Rhino; Ceratotherium simum simum) (Groves et al. 2010), subspecies status was supported following comparison of whole mitochondrial genome sequences of  four Northern and three Southern White Rhino (Harley et al. 2016) and comparisons of nuclear and mitochondrial markers for a much larger sample size of extant and historical specimens dating back to the nineteenth century (Moodley et al. 2018).  Harley et al. (2016) estimated the time of divergence of NWR and SWR was in the range of 0.5 to 1 m years with the time of lineage splitting likely to be much more recent (possibly ~200,000 years). Eric Harley also found identical 10 base pair repeats, noting that as these tend to be unstable this is more in line with NWR being a subspecies rather than a separate species. He was critical of "species inflation" that can sometimes be derived using a phylogenetic approach to defining species (e.g. Mountain Zebra). A comparison of downloaded Mitochondrial DNA sequences from ten different humans revealed that modern humans differed from each other by a maximum of 0,7%. This level of difference was very similar to the 0.9% average difference he recorded between NWR and SWR and in line with treating NWR as a subspecies.  Moodley et al.'s (2018) analysis estimated time since divergence between the two WR lineages at approximately 0.97 m years with wide confidence levels of +/- 0.5m years. Both nuclear and mitochondrial markers structured the species into two distinct populations/clades (corresponding to NWR and SWR). However, Moodley et al. (2018)  also detected post divergence secondary contact between NWR and SWR and that this possibly occurred as recently as the last glacial maximum (14,000 to 26,000 years ago). Gene flow between the two populations will have been facilitated by grassland expansions at that time. In addition it might also prove desirable to try inter-crossing the subspecies as part of assisted reproductive efforts to recover and conserve some NWR genes. The IUCN SSC African Rhino Specialist Group continues to treat the two taxa as subspecies rather than separate species.

Numbers of this subspecies have increased considerably over the last three generations. Despite an estimated ~15% decline from 2012–2017 due to heavy poaching in the largest population, numbers have been increasing in many other populations and recorded poaching levels have been declining since 2014. The subspecies does not qualify under any of the threatened categories under criteria A2 or A4. See Figures 6 and 7 and Tables 4 and 5 in the attached Supplementary Information document.

The reason for assessing this subspecies as Near Threatened and not Least Concern is due to the continued high levels of poaching in recent years and the high illegal demand for horn (as determined from intelligence gathering by wildlife investigators and increased black market prices and increased poaching and theft of horn). Current successful protection efforts have depended on significant Range State expenditure and effort and if these were to decline (especially in South Africa) rampant poaching could seriously threaten numbers (well in excess of 30% over three generations). Declining state budgets for conservation in real terms, declining capacity in some areas and increasing involvement of Southeast Asians in Africa are all of concern. Poaching levels have also increased in South Africa and Zimbabwe with increasing involvement of organised criminal networks. In the absence of conservation measures, within five years the subspecies would quickly meet the threshold for C1 under Vulnerable, and potentially also criterion A3 if poaching were to take off. See Figures 6 and 7 and Tables 4 and 5 in the attached Supplementary Information.

Two subspecies of White Rhino are currently recognised, the Northern and the Southern, each having a strikingly discontinuous range in recent times. However there is fossil evidence the species used to have a continuous distribution and there is genetic evidence of probable post divergence secondary contact during the last interglacial (14,000 to 26,000 years ago) facilitated by savanna grassland expansion at that time (Moodley et al. 2018). The Southern White Rhino was on the brink of extinction by the end of the 19^th century (c. 1895) having been reduced to just one small population of approximately 20–50 animals in KwaZulu-Natal, after settlers had over-hunted them for sport and to clear land for agriculture throughout almost all of their historical range (Emslie et al. 2009). However, by the end of 2015, after years of protection and many translocations (Emslie and Brooks 1999), the subspecies had grown to ~20,000 animals in the wild and semi-wild (Emslie et al. 2019) in over 400 subpopulations. The Southern White Rhino is now the most numerous of the rhino taxa, with South Africa remaining the stronghold for this subspecies despite increased poaching.

Southern White Rhino numbers increased rapidly from 1992–2010, averaging +7.1%/year. However population growth then slowed as poaching increased, with numbers declining from 2012 onwards. The ~15% decline in estimated continental White Rhino numbers from 2012–2017 can largely be accounted for by a drop in estimated numbers in the largest population, in South Africa’s Kruger National Park (KNP), which has been severely affected by poaching since 2007. Despite absolute numbers of White Rhinos being reported poached declining in Kruger over the last four years, so has the number of White Rhino numbers in the park. To a much lesser extent this population (and some others) were also negatively affected by a recent very bad drought. The result is that as a % of the population, poaching in Kruger NP has remained at unsustainably high levels. This is especially the case when one considers evidence that indicates some poached carcasses in this and other very large Parks are not detected (Ferreira et al. 2018a; N. Anderson and R. du Toit pers. comm.). Fortunately some of the Kruger Park decline has been partially cancelled out by increases elsewhere - especially on private land in South Africa as well as in some other Range States. Numbers on privately-owned wild populations in South Africa that provided estimates for both 2017 and 2018 increased by +6.9% while numbers on the largest semi-wild CBO population also increased by +6.8% over the year. Numbers of White Rhino also increased by 3.1% from 2017–18 in the rest of Africa outside of South Africa (2,442 to 2,517) with just over half of this likely to have been from exports of live animals from South Africa in 2018. 90% Confidence Levels around continental Southern White Rhino estimates (derived by bootstrapping using calculated or estimated precision around estimates) for end 2017 were estimated at 17,212–18,915 (Emslie et al. 2019). 

Sizeable populations occur in the greater Kruger National Park (which incorporates additional private and state reserves) and Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park (the original source of all surviving Southern White Rhino alive today), but also occur in numerous state protected areas and private reserves (some of which are also well protected) throughout the country. Live sales, limited sport hunting and ecotourism have historically provided incentives which has resulted in a significant expansion of range and numbers on private land - especially in the major Range State South Africa. There are now more White Rhino on private land in South Africa than there are rhino in the whole of the rest of Africa. However increased poaching since 2007, resultant significantly increased security costs and reduced and limited economic incentives for their conservation have resulted in significantly reduced demand for white rhino. Live sale prices of surplus White Rhino have declined significantly (Emslie et al. 2019) and an increasing number of owners seeking to get rid of their rhino. If it expands to larger populations this trend may threaten the continued expansion of range, and has the potential to also significantly reduce conservation budgets (due to declining live sales). Lower removal rates from established populations will negatively affect metapopulation growth rates in future as well as reduce budgets for conservation. There are smaller reintroduced subpopulations within the historical range of the species in Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Eswatini (formerly Swaziland). The small number that survived in Mozambique were poached out, but some animals have crossed the border into Mozambique from Kruger Park in South Africa. While they used to have a very limited lifespan if not chased back across the border into South Africa small numbers now survive in some areas due to improved protection. Populations of Southern White Rhino have also been introduced outside of the known former range of the subspecies to Kenya, Uganda and to Zambia (Emslie and Brooks 1999, Emslie et al. 2007). Uganda was previously a Northern White Rhino Range State and so the species has been reintroduced to this country. Moodley et al.'s (2018) work suggests that some form of White Rhino could have been native to Zambia and Kenya prior to recent historical times.

While Kenya has not been a White Rhino Range State in the last two hundred years; evidence from fossils and cave paintings in Kenya and northern Tanzania suggests that the White Rhino, presumably similar to the northern race (Ceratotherium simum cottoni), was widespread and a part of the East African savanna fauna until 3,000 years ago or less (M. Leakey pers. comm.), when it was probably displaced by pastoralists who could easily kill such tame animals (Brett 1993). This is based on the White Rhino subfossil documented by Maeve Leakey from 3,000 year from Rift Valley (Lake Nakuru area). Thus at one stage Kenya was once a White Rhino Range State (subspecies unknown) and hence the White Rhino as a species but not C. s. simum as a subspecies has probably been reintroduced to Kenya (with the latter being an introduction of a probable out of range subspecies). A recent report of a White Rhino hunting trophy from Kenya in an Austrian Museum still has to be confirmed but merits further investigation.

Note: At the request of certain members and countries, the IUCN SSC African Rhino Specialist Group (AfRSG) has a policy of not releasing detailed information (including maps) showing the whereabouts and names of all rhino subpopulations for security reasons. For this reason, only whole countries of occurrence are indicated on the range maps produced by the AfRSG. However numbers by species and subspecies are routinely summarised at a continental level. Estimated numbers by country as of the end of 2017 (Emslie et al. (2019) http://www.rhinoresourcecenter.com/pdf_files/156/1560170144.pdf) were South Africa 15,625, Namibia 975, Kenya 513 (with 510 C. s. simum and 3 C. s. cottoni), Botswana 452, Zimbabwe 367, Eswatini 66, Mozambique 29, Uganda 22, Zambia 14. There were an additional one and three animals respectively out of range in Cote d'Ivoire and Senegal but these are not historical Range States for the species. Bootstrapped estimates of 90% confidence levels around the total point estimate for 2017 were 17,212 to 18,915. Due to incomplete information from three South African provinces at the time of writing it is not possible to provide an updated end 2018 continental estimate. Indications are that South African 2018 numbers are likely to be similar or slightly lower than 2017. End 2018 estimates for other countries were Namibia 1,082, Kenya 664 (622 SWR, 2 NWR), Botswana 401, Zimbabwe 357, Eswatini 79, Mozambique 28, Uganda 25 and Zambia 11. The continued existence of four White Rhino out of range in West Africa is not confirmed.

As of 31 December 2017, there were an estimated 18,064 White Rhino in the wild. The majority (99.3% ) of White Rhino occur in just five countries (South Africa, Namibia, Kenya, Botswana and Zimbabwe (Emslie et al. (2019) http://www.rhinoresourcecenter.com/pdf_files/156/1560170144.pdf).

Once widespread in the bushveld areas of southern Africa south of the Zambezi River, the Southern White Rhino was on the brink of extinction by the end of the 19th century having been reduced to just one small population of approximately 20–50 animals in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. However, by the end of 2012, after years of protection and many translocations, the subspecies had grown to an estimated 21,316 wild animals. Following poaching increases estimated numbers had declined about 15% to 18,064 by the end of 2017 with bootstrapped 90% confidence levels of 17,212 to 18,915. South Africa remains the stronghold for this subspecies (~86.5%) conserving an estimated 18,933 individuals by the end of 2012. Smaller reintroduced subpopulations occur within former Range States in Botswana, Namibia, Eswatini, and Zimbabwe; subpopulations of free-ranging Southern White Rhino have also been established outside their historical range in Kenya, Zambia (Emslie and Brooks 1999) and more recently Uganda although Uganda is a former Ceratotherium simum cottoni Range State and an ~3,500 year old White Rhino subfossil indicates at one stage Kenya was also once a White Rhino Range State. Numbers of White Rhino under private ownership continue to increase.

The subspecies is found in grassland in bushveld savanna habitats. It is a grazer.

The main threat to the population is illegal hunting (poaching) to supply the illegal international rhino horn trade. It is estimated that currently around 95% of rhino horn sourced in Africa for end user illegal markets in SE Asia are from this source (Emslie et al. 2019). Rhino horn has traditionally had two main uses: use in Chinese medicine, and ornamental use. Recently rhino horn has become a highly prized material for making carved expensive high-status items such bowls and bangles. In the past it was also used to produce ornately carved handles for ceremonial daggers (jambiyas) worn in Yemen and some Middle East countries. Historically rhino horn was also used in traditional Chinese medicine (as a fever reducer). However, most recently it appears to be shavings from carvings that are illegally sold to the medicinal market at lower prices than worked items. Until recently, at the continental species level, poaching of White Rhinos has not had a serious impact on overall numbers of White Rhinos in Africa, with poaching losses in parts of the range being surpassed by encouraging growth rates in others. However following declines in the largest subpopulation (Greater Kruger) continental numbers declined by an estimated 15% from 2012 to 2015. While poaching levels increased dramatically from 2007 to 2014, numbers of White Rhinos reported poached have declined in each of the four years every year since, and half year reported poaching in 2019 in the major Range State, South Africa indicates this trend is possibly continuing. See attached Supplementary Material for graphs of reported poaching numbers by year.

The significantly increased poaching since 2007 has greatly increased protection costs and risks to investment and staff. This has resulted in declining live sale prices and reduced incentives. Some private owners in South Africa have got rid of their rhino. If this worrying trend continues this threatens to possibly reverse the expansion of range and has the potential to also significantly reduce conservation budgets (due to declining live sales at lower prices). However, so far there appears to be a consolidation of White Rhino into larger subpopulations. For more information on threats see the joint IUCN/TRAFFIC rhino report for CITES CoP18 (Emslie et al. (2019) http://www.rhinoresourcecenter.com/pdf_files/156/1560170144.pdf).

It has been estimated that around 95% of horn sourced in Africa for illegal markets in Asia in 2016 and 2017 came from poached animals in the wild (Emslie et al. 2019). In some cases horn for illegal markets has been stolen or illegally sold from horn stockpiles/private trophies/museum exhibits. “Pseudo-hunting” where sport hunting has been undertaken by individuals from non-traditional hunting countries with the aim of illegally providing horn to illegal markets has also been responsible for some of the illegal horn getting onto end-user markets although this has reduced considerably since South Africa implemented a number of measures in 2012. At one stage as much as 18% of the horn sourced for illegal markets came from this source (Emslie et al. 2012) but most recent estimates suggest this source only contributes 0.7% (Emslie et al. 2019). Live specimens for translocation are invariably taken from natural habitat, but this forms part of routine biological management of the species to meet genetic and demographic goals. This is because many established wild subpopulations require regular removals to prevent “overstocking” and maintain rapid population growth rates. Maintaining rapid underlying population growth rates also minimises loss of genetic diversity over time due to genetic drift. Given the high price of sport-hunting, and clamp down on pseudo-hunting by South Africa in 2012, only about 75 White Rhino are currently sport hunted per year in Africa. This is less than 0.5% of the population annually. For more information see Emslie et al.  (2019) http://www.rhinoresourcecenter.com/pdf_files/156/1560170144.pdf.

Effective field protection of rhino subpopulations has been critical. Many remaining rhino are now concentrated in fenced sanctuaries, conservancies, rhino conservation areas and intensive protection zones where law enforcement effort can be concentrated at effective levels. Monitoring has also provided information to guide biological management decision-making aimed at managing rhino subpopulations for rapid population growth. This has resulted in surplus animals being translocated to set up new subpopulations both within and outside the species’ former ranger. However, increasing black market prices for rhino horn, increased poaching of rhino and involvement of criminal syndicates in recent years pose a significant threat to rhino subpopulations. Strategically, White Rhinos are now managed by a range of different stakeholders (private sector and state) in a number of countries increasing their long-term security. In Southern Africa live sale of White Rhinos on auction (and limited sport hunting of surplus males) has also created incentives for private sector conservation and generated much needed funds which can help pay the high cost of successfully monitoring, protecting and managing rhino. Almost half of the White Rhino across Africa are now managed by the private sector throughout Africa with the majority in South Africa (Emslie et al. 2019). However, as discussed above, incentives are declining while protection costs and risks have increased resulting in some owners getting rid of their rhino.

By 1977, all African rhino species were listed on CITES Appendix I, and all international commercial trade in rhinos and their products was prohibited. However, following a continued increase in numbers, the South African population of Southern White Rhino was downlisted in 1994 to Appendix II, but only for trade in live animals to “approved and acceptable destinations” and for the (continued) export of hunting trophies. Numbers have almost trebled since then. In 2004, Eswatini's (formerly Swaziland) Southern White Rhino were also downlisted to CITES Appendix II, but only for live export and for limited export of hunting trophies according to specified annual quotas. To help reduce illegal trade, and complement CITES international trade bans, domestic anti-trade measures and legislation were implemented in the 1990s by a number of the major consumer states and law enforcement effort has been stepped up in many consumer countries. Demand reduction initiatives are also underway in key implicated states such as Viet Nam.

In addition to local, national, international and continental initiatives, there are a number of regional African rhino conservation initiatives: the South African Development Community (SADC) Rhino Management Group , a recently revitalised East African Rhino Management Group and the Southern African Rhino and Elephant Security Group. IUCN SSC's African Rhino Specialist Group is the continental coordinating body for rhino conservation in Africa. In addition to National Rhino Plans there is a Continental African Rhino Range States Conservation Plan. IUCN SSC African Rhino Specialist Group is the continental coordinating body for rhino conservation in Africa.

For a more detailed summary of conservation actions see the joint IUCN/TRAFFIC rhino report for CITES CoP18 (Emslie et al. (2019) http://www.rhinoresourcecenter.com/pdf_files/156/1560170144.pdf).