While analyses of different data sets strongly supported use of the current three surviving subspecies classification at a continental level (see Taxonomic Notes for the species) they also indicated that Diceros bicornis minor samples could be further subdivided into those of Zambesi, KwaZulu-Natal or mixed Zambesi/KZN origin (Emslie 2018, Harper et al. 2018). Moodley et al. (2017) also found this partitioning of D. b. minor. The subpopulations founded with KZN animals were found to be less genetically diverse than ones derived from Zambesi animals due to a relatively recent severe bottleneck (Emslie 2018, Harper et al. 2018). Data indicates that most of the genetic diversity has been recovered in the large mixed KZN/Zambesi founded population in the Kruger National Park (C. Harper pers. comm. 2018).

Based on very small sample sizes, Moodley et al.'s (2017) results suggested that perhaps the original historical Black Rhino that used to occur in Zambia but which had been wiped out by poaching by 1995 might be better classified as D. b. michaeli than D. b. minor as was always thought to be the case. However, on account of the small sample sizes, and given that the species was reintroduced with D. b. minor founders, that historically Zambia had been considered D. b. minor range and climate and habitats are more similar to some D. b. minor range; reviewers recommended that historical pre-1995 Zambian animals should continue to be allocated to D. b. minor for this Red List assessment (as has historically been the case). With further data this may change in future. As there were still significant numbers of Black Rhinos in Zambia in the early 1970s how these animals are allocated influences the D. b. minor subspecies Red List assessment which would change to Endangered under criteria A2 and A4. The D. b. michaeli assessment remains the same whether or not the historical animals are classified as D. b. minor or D. b. michaeli.

Qualifies for listing as Critically Endangered (CR) under criteria A2abd+4abd. See Figures 10 and 11 and Tables 4 and 5 in the attached Supplementary Information document.

A comparison with the Critically Endangered South-western Black Rhino (Diceros bicornis bicornis) is of interest. There are similar numbers of both South-western and South-eastern Black Rhino. Despite South-western Black Rhino only occurring in two countries and in fewer subpopulations, it is assessed as Near Threatened (NT) (compared to the South-eastern being Critically Endangered (CR)). This is because of significant historical declines in numbers and range of South-eastern Black Rhino occurred in the 1970s, 1980s and early 1990s - while numbers of South-western Black Rhino have (due in large measure to very successful conservation efforts in the main Range State Namibia and subsequent expansion of range and numbers in both Namibia and to parts of neighbouring South Africa) been growing from a much lower base over the last three generations.

Due to past heavy poaching numbers of South-eastern Black Rhino declined significantly over three generations with an estimated 94% decline from 1973 to 1994. From 1994 to 2018 numbers of this subspecies have increased by 80%, but still qualify to be assessed as CR under criterion A2 by virtue of the scale of past declines over the last three generations (see attached Supplementary Information document).

Underlying population growth of this subspecies has been a little lower than the other two subspecies due to suboptimal performance of some subpopulations. However, more aggressive biological management (use of translocations to keep subpopulations productive or increase their productivity) is enhancing underlying population growth rates in some subpopulations.

There are now three remaining recognised subspecies/genetic management clusters of Black Rhino occupying different areas of Africa. Strong support for this classification has been provided by independent analyses of different genetic data sets by different researchers using different analytical methods. See Taxonomic notes for more details. A fourth recognised subspecies Diceros biconis longipes once ranged through the savanna zones of central-west Africa but it is now considered to have gone extinct in its last known habitats in northern Cameroon.

Diceros b. minor is believed to have occurred from southern Tanzania through Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique to the northern, northwestern and northeastern parts of South Africa (north of the Mtamvuna River). It also probably occurred in southern Democratic Republic of the Congo, northern Angola, eastern Botswana, Malawi, and Eswatini (formerly Swaziland). Today, its stronghold is South Africa and to a lesser extent Zimbabwe, with smaller numbers remaining in southern Tanzania. The South-eastern (or Southern-central) Black Rhino is now thought to be extinct in Angola and only the odd individual survives in Mozambique. The subspecies has been reintroduced to Botswana, Malawi, Eswatini and Zambia. Based on very small sample sizes, Moodley et al.'s (2017) results suggested that perhaps the original historical Black Rhino that used to occur in Zambia but which had been wiped out by poaching by 1995 might be better classified as D. b. michaeli rather than D. b. minor. However on account of the small sample sizes, and given that the species was reintroduced into Zambia with D. b. minor founders, and that historically Zambia had been considered D. b. minor range, and climate and habitats are more similar to some D. b. minor range; reviewers recommended that historical pre-1995 Zambian animals should continue to be allocated to D. b. minor for this Red List assessment (as has historically been the case). With further data this may change in future. As there were still significant numbers of Black Rhinos in Zambia in the early 1970s how these animals are allocated influences the D. b. minor subspecies Red List assessment which would change to Endangered under criteria A2 and A4.

Note: At the request of certain members and countries, the IUCN SSC African Rhino Specialist Group (AfRSG) has a policy of not releasing detailed information (including maps) showing the whereabouts and names of all rhino subpopulations for security reasons. For this reason, only whole countries of occurrence are indicated on the range maps produced by the AfRSG.

Figure 1 in the attached Supplementary Information document show after declining to a low in the mid 1990s, numbers of this subspecies/genetic management cluster have increased. Over three generations (1973–2017) numbers declined 88% from an estimated 19,994 to 2,305. There has been an estimated decline of 17% over two generations (from an estimate of 2,783 in 1988 to 2,305 in 2017). More positively despite an upsurge of poaching from 2007 numbers have increased by 42% from an estimated 1,620 in 2002. Estimates are based on AfRSG data compiled with the support of Range States and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Rhino Management Group (RMG).

The species is a browser and can live in a range of habitats.

Black Rhino face a variety of threats. The main threat to the species is illegal hunting (poaching) to supply the illegal international rhino horn trade. It is estimated that currently around 95% of rhino horn sourced in Africa for end user illegal markets in SE Asia are from this source (Emslie et al. 2019). Rhino horn has traditionally had two main uses: use in Chinese medicine, and ornamental use. Recently rhino horn has become a highly prized material for making carved expensive high-status items such bowls and bangles. In the past it was also used to produce ornately carved handles for ceremonial daggers (jambiyas) worn in Yemen and some Middle East countries. Historically rhino horn was also used in traditional Chinese medicine (as a fever reducer). However, most recently it appears to be shavings from carvings that are illegally sold to the medicinal market at lower prices than worked items. While Black Rhino numbers continue to increase at a continental level poaching has slowed overall growth. Some subpopulations have also declined. See Figure 2 and Table 2 and 3 in the attached Supplementary Information file.

The significantly increased poaching since 2007 has greatly increased protection costs and risks to investment and staff. This has resulted in reduced incentives. For more information on threats see the joint IUCN/TRAFFIC rhino report for CITES CoP18 (Emslie et al. 2019 http://www.rhinoresourcecenter.com/pdf_files/156/1560170144.pdf). 

It has been estimated that around 95% of horn sourced in Africa for illegal markets in Asia in 2016 and 2017 came from poached animals in the wild (Emslie et al. 2019). In some cases horn for illegal markets has been stolen or illegally sold from horn stockpiles/private trophies/museum exhibits. Sport hunting of very small numbers of Diceros bicornis minor occurs in South Africa with permits only issued where hunting meets stipulated conservation criteria and will benefit either demographic or genetic conservation goals. Live specimens for translocation are invariably taken from natural habitat, but this forms part of routine biological management of the species to meet genetic and demographic goals. This is because many established wild populations require regular removals to prevent “overstocking” and maintain rapid population growth rates. Maintaining rapid underlying population growth rates also minimises loss of genetic diversity over time due to genetic drift. For more information see Emslie et al. 2019 http://www.rhinoresourcecenter.com/pdf_files/156/1560170144.pdf.

For information on Conservation Actions, see the species' assessment.