European regional assessment: Least Concern (LC)
EU 27 regional assessment: Near Threatened (NT)
The Eurasian Lynx is abundant in the northern and eastern parts of its range In Europe. There are 8,000-9,000 individuals present in Europe (including Ukraine but excluding Russia and Belarus; LCIE 2018, Chapron
et al. 2014) and this number has been stable since the last regional assessment in 2007. Including numbers from Russia west of the Ural Mountains according to the last global Red List assessment (Breitenmoser
et al. 2015), the European population can be estimated to be 17,000–18,000 lynx with an overall stable population trend, and hence the species is classified as Least Concern at the European level.
The number of lynx within the EU Member States remains small. With an estimated total of 7,000-8,000 individuals, the EU population is below the population size threshold for Vulnerable under Criterion C (10,000 mature individuals), but does currently not meet the subcriteria regarding the extent of the decline or population structure. However, some of the larger subpopulations (eleven subpopulations are distinguished in Europe, see below) have shown declining trends in the past decade and if this trend persists, the lynx numbers and declines within the EU could meet Vulnerable under Criterion C1 in the near future. Consequently, it is assessed as Near Threatened (C1) at the EU level.
Continued and coordinated conservation measures are required to ensure the recovery of the species. This is particularly true for the Critically Endangered Balkan Lynx subspecies, but also for the reintroduced populations in Western and Central Europe (Alpine, Vosges-Palatinian, Jura, Bohemian-Bavarian-Austrian, Dinaric, Harz) which are still small and are classified as Endangered or Critically Endangered. Additionally, the recent negative trends in some of the larger autochthonous subpopulations (Scandinavian and Baltic) have to be reversed.
The lynx status estimates available from the range countries are mainly on total population size (number of lynx individuals) or number of independent individuals (adults and subadults, based on capture-recapture estimates by means of camera trap surveys extrapolated to the distribution area of the subpopulation). The number of mature individuals is however slightly lower which was taken into account when assessing the category. Subpopulations are assessed on the European, not the EU level.
1. JuraEndangered (D). Lynx numbers in the Jura Mts. have increased to
c.140 independent individuals and the range has expanded. It however still qualifies as Endangered under Criterion D because the subpopulation size is below 250 mature individuals. In recent years, a few male lynx from the Jura Mts. have dispersed to neighbouring regions (e.g. the Black Forest in Germany). However, there is too limited immigration of lynx from neighbouring subpopulations, e.g. the Alps, into the Jura subpopulation to provide a sufficient demographic rescue effect. Therefore, the Red List category is not adjusted for connectivity.
2. Vosges-PalatinianCritically Endangered (C1, D). The Vosges-Palatinian subpopulation is on the verge of extinction. Numbers had dropped from 30-40 lynx in 2005 to one to three ten years later which is a reduction of 91% (CR Criterion C1 (25% reduction in four years) in addition to Criterion D for the very small population size). Consequently, in the frame of the EU LIFE project "Reintroduction of lynx in the biosphere reserve Palatinian Forest" 20 lynx were released from 2016 on into the Palatinian Forest in Germany. However, as the reintroduction was only completed in 2020 and there was a continuing decline throughout the years before, Critically Endangered under Criteria C and D is still considered valid. There is so far too limited immigration from the Jura Mts. to provide a demographic rescue effect.
3. AlpineEndangered (D). The subpopulation has slightly increased to
c. 163 independent individuals, which is however still small and the subpopulation remains Endangered. In addition, the increase was partly due to the foundation of stepping stones through translocations of lynx. So far the subpopulation is not receiving any relevant immigration from neighbouring subpopulations which are all also small and have conservation problems themselves (e.g. Dinaric subpopulation). The Alpine subpopulation itself is fragmented into four smaller occurrences in the Western and Eastern Alps. Consequently, the Red List category is not adjusted for connectivity.
4. Bohemian-Bavarian-AustrianCritically Endangered (D). The distribution of the Bohemian-Bavarian-Austrian subpopulation has stagnated since the late 1990s (Magg
et al. 2016). The subpopulation has decreased from an estimated 75 individuals in 2005 to
c. 50 individuals in 2006-2011. In the past few years, it has slightly recovered to 60-80 independent individuals in 2015 and numbers seem to stabilize. It is just around the threshold of 50 mature individuals for Endangered under Criterion D. Considering the previous long-term negative trend and that limiting factors have not yet been reversed (Magg
et al. 2016) suggests a precautionary approach and classification as Critically Endangered. Neighbouring lynx subpopulations are small and threatened, and there are barriers to dispersal, consequently, no rescue effect from them can be expected and the Red List category is not adjusted.
5. DinaricEndangered (D). The overall subpopulation size has been rather stable in the past decade at around 130 individuals, however, it has decreased in the northern part of its range. Besides a high level of human-caused mortality (Sindicic
et al. 2016), problems of inbreeding have been noticed due to the very few founder individuals released in 1973 (Sindicic
et al. 2013). The subpopulation is isolated and no rescue effect can be expected. It is assessed as Endangered under Criterion D. Efforts have been made to reinforce the subpopulation with lynx from the Carpathians in the frame of the EU LIFE project “Preventing the Extinction of the Dinaric-SE Alpine lynx Population Through Reinforcement and Long-term Conservation“).
6. CarpathianLeast Concern. The Carpathians host one of the largest continuous lynx subpopulations in Europe. The overall number is about 2,100-2,400. Overall, it appears to be rather stable, although in certain regions numbers have decreased, either reflecting a real trend (e.g. Ukraine and Bulgaria) or due to better monitoring systems in place which proved that previous numbers were overestimated (e.g. Slovakia, Kubala
et al. 2017). When considering the number of mature individuals, the threshold for Near Threatened under Criterion D is almost met. A careful monitoring of the situation (which requires the implementation of better monitoring systems in many of the range countries) and a re-assessment within a few years are recommended.
7. Scandinavian
Vulnerable (C1). The Scandinavian subpopulation has a large range (area of occupancy over 450,000 km²) but has further declined in numbers in the past decade. It is now estimated at
c. 1,300-1,800 individuals compared to
c. 1,800-2,300 in 2011 and
c. 2,000 in 2001. The drastic decline, which is at least in part due to a management goal designed to reduce conflicts related to sheep and semi-domestic reindeer depredation, would qualify for classifying the subpopulation as Endangered under Criterion C1 (less than 2,500 mature individuals and a 20% decline over two generations). However, in 2015 and 2016, the decline was halted. There is some connectivity with the Karelian subpopulation (Finland and Russia) and single individuals are likely to disperse. The category is therefore adjusted to Vulnerable. The extent of this connectivity and the phylogeny of these two subpopulations, however, need some further investigation. A careful monitoring of the situation, a continued adaptive adjustment of hunting quotas and derogations, and a status re-assessment within a few years, are recommended.
8. KarelianLeast Concern. The numbers in Finland have further increased and are estimated at
c. 2,500 individuals (compared to 1,100 animals in 2004). Although there is no up-to-date information from Russian Karelia, the number of lynx is also thought to be stable there. It is furthermore connected with the large neighbouring subpopulation in Russia from which a potential rescue effect is to be expected. Therefore, the Karelian subpopulation is assessed as Least Concern.
9. BalticLeast Concern. The subpopulation consists of around 1,200-1,500 individuals, without considering Russia and Belarus for which no current information is available. Although there was a slight decrease – particularly in Estonia (probably due to the effect of prey declines following snow-rich winters) – this subpopulation is connected both to the Karelian and the larger Russian subpopulations from which a potential rescue effect can be expected. It is therefore assessed as Least Concern. Developments in the Baltic States and Poland, however, need to be carefully surveyed as the distribution area in this part of the range is still fragmented. A further reduction in Estonia has to be prevented.
10. BalkanCritically Endangered (D). This subpopulation consists of only 20-39 mature individuals and has been assessed as Critically Endangered in 2015 (Melovski
et al. 2015). The number and distribution has not changed since, and the population is isolated. Therefore, Critically Endangered under Criterion D is still valid.
11. HarzCritically Endangered (D). This subpopulation has been newly founded through re-introduction of lynx into the Harz Mountains in Germany. Between 2000 and 2006, 24 lynx were reintroduced into the Harz National Park in Lower Saxony. Since 2002, reproduction is regularly recorded (
https://www.luchsprojekt-harz.de/luchsprojekt/de/start/). It is currently estimated at 46 independent individuals, is isolated, and qualifies for Critically Endangered under Criterion D (below 50 mature individuals).