European regional assessment: Vulnerable (VU)
EU 27 regional assessment: Not Recorded

Polar Bears are highly dependent on sea ice habitat, and are only found in areas with sea ice for a significant period of the year, in the northern hemisphere. Several studies have shown negative effects of sea ice habitat loss on body condition, survival, and reproduction, and in some areas, population declines have been explained by a warmer climate and habitat loss.

Regehr et al. (2016) predicted, based on a set of models accounting for different relationships between sea ice and population growth rate, that a >30% reduction of the global population size over three generations (35-41 years) was likely, but also that a reduction of 50% or more was much less likely. An assessment of the Barents Sea (European) subpopulation is more challenging, because the subpopulation has shown no decline, or signs thereof, during a period of profound habitat loss (Aars et al. 2017). The assessment, A3c (A3: population reduction projected, inferred or suspected to be met in the future (up to a maximum of 100 years, c: a decline in area of occupancy (AOO), extent of occurrence (EOO) and/or habitat quality), is based on the following: the sea ice habitat loss in this area is predicted to continue in future decades, and to be more profound than in other areas having Polar Bear subpopulations (Durner et al. 2009). The Polar Bears that follow the ice edge are now found a few 100 km further north much of the year, and often have to swim between hunting areas along the ice edge and the islands where they construct maternity dens (Lone 2018a,b). Lower access to maternity denning areas in Svalbard has already led to profound changes in where females den (Derocher et al. 2011), and access to several other areas are predicted to decline further, also in the Western Russian Arctic (Merkel and Aars 2022). Although the European Arctic AOO and EOO are huge (over one million km²), the areas and the habitat quality are predicted to decrease rapidly in the future. The Barents Sea area has recently been shown to have experienced even a faster warming in air temperature than earlier reported (Isaksen et al. 2022), and keep losing sea ice faster than elsewhere in the Arctic (Onarheim et al. 2018). Further, the BS subpopulation was likely at a level far lower than the carrying capacity when protected after excessive hunting over more than 100 years in 1973. Given a long generation time (approximately 11.5 years; Regehr et al. 2016), and relatively low growth rate, even with a likely decline in the carrying capacity due to habitat loss, the subpopulation may still be at an abundance below the current carrying capacity. It is likely a non-linear relationship between sea ice availability and demographic parameters where a decline in the number of bears may happen either in near, or more distant, future. A decline could possibly be fast, but there is considerable uncertainty both in when a decline may start and its magnitude, given the lack of data on relationships between sea ice and demography under future conditions that have not been observed. Models based on the relationship between the length of the season with sea ice and energetics and reproduction (Molnar et al. 2020, or extended to including the relationship between sea ice habitat and greenhouse gas emissions (Amstrup and Bitz 2013) would predict that the Barents Sea bears already should have been negatively affected regarding condition and reproduction, but this is not yet observed. A high level of gene flow due to overlap with neighbouring subpopulations (Peacock et al. 2015) also makes it less of a concern that the number of mature individuals in the area may reach a critical number.

The Polar Bear is therefore assessed as Vulnerable in Europe as a future decline of over 30% is considered likely to occur within the next three generations.

In Europe, Polar Bears are found in Svalbard (Norway) and Franz Josef Land (Russian Arctic) year-round. Close to 300 bears are local in Svalbard and never leave the archipelago, but use sea ice available in the area (Aars et al. 2017). Most bears follow the marginal ice zone, which may be further south in winter, but now frequently is located north of Svalbard much of the year (Lone et al. 2018a). Occasionally, bears venture down to the west coast of Novaya Zemlya, in years when sea ice is present in that area.

Polar Bears live throughout the ice-covered waters of Greenland (Denmark), Norway, Russian Federation (North European Russia, Siberia, Chukotka), the circumpolar Arctic, in Canada (Manitoba, Newfoundland, Labrador, Nunavut, Northwest Territories, Quebec, Yukon Territory, Ontario), and the United States (Alaska). Some vagrants occasionally reach Iceland. Their range is limited by the southern extent of sea ice. Although some occur in the permanent multi-year pack ice of the central Arctic basin, they are most common in the annual ice over the continental shelf and inter-island archipelagos that surround the polar basin. Polar Bears that have continuous access to sea ice are able to hunt throughout the year. However, in those areas where the sea ice melts completely each summer, Polar Bears are forced to spend up to several months on land fasting on stored fat reserves until freeze-up. Use of land by Polar Bears during the ice-free season has increased in certain locations (see Laidre et al. 2022). Polar Bears typically occur at low elevations (i.e., on the sea ice and up to c. 200 m in coastal areas), but can also cross inland glaciers and mountain areas further inland (Aars et al. 2009).

In Europe, the Barents Sea (BS) subpopulation (Norway and the Russian Federation) was, in 2004, estimated to be 2,650 (95% CI 1,900-3,600) individuals (Aars et al. 2009). The BS subpopulation, based on an estimate restricted to the Norwegian side, and extrapolation, had likely remained stable or increased in size from 2004 to 2015 (Aars et al. 2017). The BS subpopulation borders East Greenland subpopulation to the west, the Kara Sea subpopulation to the east, and the Arctic Basin in the north (https://www.iucn-pbsg.org/). Given the low genetic structure (Peacock et al. 2015), the subpopulations may rather be termed "management units", and both overlap and migration between these units are likely considerable. In total, there are 19 recognised subpopulations or stocks, which may number in total 26,000 bears (95% CI 22,000-31,000; Regehr et al. 2016). Considerable overlap of putative subpopulations occurs and genetic differences among them are generally small (Peacock et al. 2015). One exception is a newly recognised and much more isolated stock of Polar Bears living in the inner part of deep fjords of SE Greenland (Laidre et al. 2022).

Polar Bears occur at low densities throughout their range and are most abundant in shallow water areas near shore or where currents or upwellings increase biological productivity, and near ice areas associated with open water, polynyas or lead systems. Polar Bears are less abundant in the high central arctic over deeper waters of the polar basin. Seasonally, in the summer open water season in the Canadian arctic islands and Svalbard, and in recent years during the fall in northern Alaska and Russian Chukotka, Polar Bears may be found on land in higher densities. Breeding occurs in March to May, implantation is delayed until autumn, and birth is generally thought to occur from late November to mid-January. Although some cubs are born in earth dens (Canada), most births occur in snow dens that may be occupied from four to six months during the maternal event. Only pregnant female Polar Bears den for this protracted period, during which they rely on fat stores for energy and sustenance. The average litter size is less than two at the time the family leave their den in spring. Cubs are most typically dependent upon mothers until after the start of their third year of life. Age of first reproduction is normally five or six years for females. These factors contribute to the low reproductive potential for the species (Amstrup 2003).

The main threat to Polar Bears today is loss of sea ice habitat, due to climate warming (Regehr et al. 2016). Distribution of areas occupied will likely change fast in future years, as sea ice habitat shrinks in many parts of the Arctic (Atwood et al. 2016). With the continued loss of sea ice habitat, bears have less access to ice associated seal species, their most important food source. Negative demographic effects on Polar Bear subpopulations directly associated with sea ice habitat loss have been demonstrated in Western Hudson Bay, Canada (Regehr et al. 2007, Lunn et al. 2016) and Southern Beaufort Sea, Alaska (Regehr et al. 2010, Bromaghin et al. 2016). So far, no significant effects on demography due to habitat loss have yet been shown for the Barents Sea population. This is despite a reduction in the days of sea ice habitat of four days per year for the last decades (Stern and Laidre 2016). However, the sea ice loss has had effects on distribution, where the bears following the sea ice edge now have shifted several hundred km northwards (Lone et al. 2018a). In recent years, Polar Bears have more frequently been forced to swim longer distances to cross open water between hunting grounds and the islands (Lone et al. 2018b, Blanchet et al. 2020). The increased cost of swimming may negatively affect females by reducing their fat reserves needed during their maternity denning period in winter, thereby reducing their ability to raise cubs. Further, the lack of sea ice in autumn hinders females from reaching their preferred denning areas (Derocher et al. 2011). It is predicted that access to important denning areas will continue to decline in both Svalbard and Franz Josef Land in coming decades (Merkel and Aars 2022).

Bears in Svalbard are forced on land for longer periods, and have changed to more terrestrial food, such as birds, bird eggs, and reindeer (Prop et al. 2015, Hamilton et al. 2017, Stempniewicz et al. 2021). Whale carcasses have also been of importance to stranded bears in some areas, including in Svalbard (Laidre et al. 2018). More research is needed to explore to which extent those food sources can compensate for the shorter seasons when bears hunt seals on the ice. High levels of fat-soluble pollutants in Polar Bears, both in the Barents Sea area and in several other Arctic populations, have been related to physiological processes and health. Direct effects on demography have not been demonstrated, but the potential for such effects is likely to be higher among more food-stressed bears, and thus in the future if sea ice decline continues as predicted (for a review, see Routti et al. 2019). Oil development in the Arctic also poses a possible threat to Polar Bears ranging from potential oil spills to increased human-bear interactions (Atwood and Wilder 2021). An oil spill in sea ice habitat would result in oil being concentrated in leads and between ice floes and could result in both Polar Bears and their main prey (ringed and bearded seals) being directly exposed to oil. Oiled seals could transfer oil to Polar Bears, if predated.

There is no use or trade of this species.

Conservation actions vary by jurisdiction. The International Agreement on the Conservation of Polar Bears provides guidance, and Article II of the Agreement states that each contracting party "shall manage polar bear populations in accordance with sound conservation practices based on the best available scientific information," and according to Article VII, "The Contracting Parties shall conduct national research programs on Polar Bears" and "..consult with each other on the management of migrating polar bear populations". These articles have been important for stimulating governments to support applied research to answer management questions regarding polar bears throughout their range. This work is often coordinated through the IUCN SSC Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG) and meetings of the Polar Bear Range States. Resolutions from the PBSG are developed and directed toward ensuring that the terms and intentions of the Agreement are being met. Coordinated research is ongoing, management actions are reviewed for consistency, and legislation to effect bilateral management for internationally shared populations such as between the US-Russia is being pursued. In Europe, the Barents Sea population is protected. In Svalbard, Norway, the Governor is responsible for the management of polar bears. The Svalbard Environmental Protection Act of 2009 implements laws to protect habitat and avoid human disturbance.

The Polar Bear is listed on Appendix II of the Bern Convention, and Appendix II of CITES.

Further monitoring of population trends is recommended.