The species was previously assessed as VUD2 in 2011. However, new data called for its reassessment. Afrocarpus mannii is a tree, up to 35 m tall. It is a light demanding species, found in submontane and montane forest, mostly in open habitat such as ridges, between 1,216 and 2,024 m in elevation. The species is endemic to São Tomé, occurring in the northwest-centre of the island. It is known from 36 collections made between 1861 (Mann 1065) and 2008 (Randrianaivo, R. 1644), two observations made on the MBG Transects, three in Macambrará, and 57 field observations (GPS points) made on the whole island. Twenty five specimens were excluded because they are cultivated (mostly around Monte Café and Saudade) or not well georeferenced (between Monte Café and the Pico). Moreover, individuals that were planted along the road of Monte Café were logged, as well as the ones cultivated in São Nicolau and Saudade. Overall, 12 specimens and 53 observations were kept, representing 65 occurrences.

Despite the old age of some collections (G. Mann 1065 in 1861 for example), we did not exclude any of these 65 occurrences, since the locations are remote and still covered by forest, thus considered as still suitable for the species.

Two large groups of individuals are known in the wild, one around the ridges near Lagoa Amélia, and the other on the ridge from Estação Sousa, to the Pico de São Tomé and to Morro Vilela. These two patches of individuals form one subpopulation since they are quite close (3 km) and individuals certainly exist on ridges linking these two areas (track to Escadas). The number of individuals at the top is quite limited, but the species is frequent: 51 observations of mature individuals have been made there, showing that the species is quite common along ridges, but not abundant in the wild. Indeed, we can estimate that the number of mature individuals does not exceed 1,000 individuals based on the 51 observations made along the ridge to the Pico which representing around one third or one quarter of its natural habitat. Also worth noting that most tracks in the area where the species can be found are along the ridges, which is a preferential habitat for the species, making it easy to find.

The species is not directly threatened by logging but its habitat, the submontane forest, has been reduced, especially in the area near Bom Sucesso, where many new crop settlements were established starting around 1980. The species was also collected near Macambrará, on the ridge, a place that is also threatened by horticulture.

Most of the about 300–400 individuals recently cultivated in the nursery of Bom Sucesso originated from young seedlings collected at Morro Esperança, near Lagoa Amélia.

Most herbarium specimens and observations were collected in the Obô Natural Park. Despite the quality of its timber, none of these places appears to be directly threatened.

The occurrences located near Macambrará are threatened by agricultural expansion and represent one location. Individuals found between Bom Sucesso and Lagoa Amélia are also threatened by agricultural expansion and by the invasive species that it promotes, and they represent one location. Finally, individuals situated at higher elevation within the protected area do not appear to be under any direct or immediate threat, and represent one location based one the impacted area of the most important threat, agriculture.

Since the habitat remains unaltered in the places of collection, and most of the occurrences are recent, we consider that the species persists in all places of occurrence. The habitat of the species does not appear to be fragmented. Based on a 2 x 2 km cell size, the area of occupancy (AOO) of this species is estimated at 28 km², and the extent of occurrence (EOO) is calculated at 14.608 km², both below the upper threshold for Endangered status under criterion B. The EOO is calculated at less than AOO, so we consider EOO to be the same as the AOO (i.e. 28 km²), both below the upper threshold for Endangered status under criterion B.

The 65 occurrences represent three locations (sensu IUCN 2019), with regards to the most important threats (small scale agriculture). Moreover, we infer a past decline of the AOO and mature individuals, and a past, current, and future continuing decline in the extent and habitat quality. Finally, the whole population of the species is situated in one subpopulation. This species is thus assessed as EN B1ab(ii,iii,v) + B2ab(ii,iii,v); C2a(ii).

The species is endemic to the island of São Tomé, occurring in the northwest-centre of this island.

The population of this species is naturally small as it is confined to the ridges of a single mountain. At lower altitudes, larger trees have been felled, but they were cultivated. The number of mature individuals is less than 1,000. Around 300–400 individuals have been planted over the last 10 years on São Tomé.

Afrocarpus mannii is endemic to the volcanic mountain of Pico de São Tomé from ca 1,216 m to the summit at 2,024 m asl. It is nowhere a large tree and at the summit it is reduced to dwarfed krummholz. It is frequent in the high montane cloud forest, which has remained almost undisturbed, especially above ca 1,500 m.

The habitat of the species is the sub-montane and montane rainforest, along ridges, open montane forest, and along tracks. The species is cultivated at lower altitude in plantations or as ornamental (Porto Alegre in São Tomé, Libreville).

Deforestation due to agricultural expansion in submontane forest is the main threat to this species. Impacts such as changes in precipitation/ moisture levels associated with climate change are likely to have a serious impact as it already occupies almost all suitable niches (Rosenblad et al. 2019). The species is a timber tree, but most individuals logged currently were planted.

The timber of Afrocarpus mannii is valuable if from well-shaped large trees, which have become scarce. It is used for light construction. This species has been planted in rural areas in Cameroon and Côte d'Ivoire and probably elsewhere in West Africa as a canopy tree or windbreak for coffee plantations and as an amenity tree in villages. The local name is Pinheiro de São Tomé and it is used to treat coughs.

Some individuals have been planted at CIAT station, around 39 years ago, and they now have about 30 cm in DBH. They were producing fruits after 30 years. Many young seedlings (10 cm tall) have been collected around Lagoa Amélia (Esperança) and planted in the nursery of the Bom Sucesso Botanical Garden (10 individuals were transplanted to the garden). After four years, they were about 150 cm tall. Between 300 to 400 seedlings have been delivered to communities as timber trees, but no precise localities are given (Projects CARPE, ECOFAC6, FFEM).

The population lies almost entirely within the Obô Natural Park. At higher altitudes above 1,500 m there still appears to be a good forest cover, so that under adequate protection trees of this species could grow to good sizes ensuring natural dynamics. This species is recorded from 23 ex situ collections (BGCI 2024).

A precise estimate of the population size should be made, and the species should be studied in the field to increase the knowledge on its distribution and on its ecology, especially at lower elevation. However, since it is threatened by shifting agriculture various conservation measures must be considered. First, it should be regarded as an HCV1 (High Conservation Value) species and, as a consequence, it should be included in the management plan of the natural park. Second, it should be included in the list of protected species of São Tomé, to fight harvesting and the destruction of its habitat. Third, ex situ conservation should be continued, both locally and internationally. Finally, a public awareness campaign must be conducted targeting industrial companies and other private actors, NGOs, scientific institutions, and the government, to ensure that the species is used for reforestation.