Historically, Harbour Porpoises were intentionally hunted and caught, and unintentionally bycaught in fishing gear, throughout the range of the Baltic Proper subpopulation (HELCOM 2022). Data from Polish fisheries reports show that in the area around Hel Peninsula and Puck Bay, at least 676 Harbour Porpoises were caught from 1922 to 1933. During 1934–1935, the minimum number caught was about 400, and the total number was roughly estimated to be 800 (Psuty 2013). From November 1960 to October 1961, at least 50 Harbour Porpoises were bycaught by Swedish salmon fishermen in the central Baltic Proper (Lindroth 1962).
Today, bycatch in fishing gear remains the most significant threat to the Baltic Proper Harbour Porpoise subpopulation, and the threat level is classified as high (ICES 2019). The majority (at least 97%) of the bycatch records in the Baltic Proper have been reported to occur in static nets, such as gillnets, trammel nets or other entangling nets (Berggren 1994, Skóra and Kuklik 2003, EC-DGMARE 2014). The most common types of static nets in which bycatch has occurred are semi-driftnets (anchored at one end) set for Salmonids, and bottom-set gillnets set for Cod. In addition to static nets, Harbour Porpoises are also bycaught in smaller numbers in trawls (ICES 2020a).
The Potential Biological Removal (PBR) limit for the Baltic Proper Harbour Porpoise population has been calculated to be 0.7 individuals (North Atlantic Marine Mammal Commission and Norwegian Institute of Marine Research 2019). PBR is the maximum number of animals (excluding natural mortalities) that can be lost from a population while still allowing the population to reach the defined conservation objective: that a population at the maximum net productivity level (MNPL greater than or equal to 50% of carrying capacity (K)) is able to remain there for 20 years, and that a population at 30% K is able to reach MNPL in 100 years (Wade 1998). In comparison to the PBR of 0.7 individuals, the number of animals bycaught in the Baltic Proper Harbour Porpoise subpopulation in 2017 was estimated to be 7 individuals, and records of bycaught animals still occur within the distributional range of the population. Therefore, the number of bycaught animals alone likely far exceeds the PBR limit.
Along with bycatch, pollutants are classified as a high threat to the Baltic Proper Harbour Porpoise subpopulation (ICES 2019). Biomagnifying pollutants such as persistent organic pollutants (POPs, e.g. PCBs and dioxins) and heavy metals (e.g. mercury) are of particular concern for Harbour Porpoises in the Baltic Sea. They may act as endocrine disruptors, affecting the reproductive system, thyroid gland, neuroendocrine system, immune system, and the systems that control nutrient partitioning (Rhind 2008). In Harbour Porpoises, high PCB burdens have been found to be associated with reduced immune system function, health status, and fertility (Jepson et al. 2005; Beineke et al. 2007a,b; Murphy et al. 2015). High burdens of mercury have been associated with prevalence of parasitic infection and infectious diseases (Siebert et al. 1999). Since the start of regulation of the use of PCBs in the 1980s, PCB concentrations in marine mammals initially declined worldwide, but have since stabilised at toxicologically significant levels in several European cetacean species (Law 2014, Jepson et al. 2016). A similar temporal pattern is seen in several other POPs and their toxic equivalence (TEQ) values in Baltic Herring and seabird eggs (European Food Safety Authority 2005, Jörundsdóttir et al. 2006, Miller et al. 2014). Recent data from Baltic Proper Harbour Porpoises are lacking, but PCB concentrations in animals sampled in the 1980–1990s (Kannan et al. 1993, Berggren et al. 1999, Bruhn et al. 1999, Falandysz et al. 2002) were often well over a proposed threshold for adverse health effects (Jepson et al. 2005). During the 1980–1990s, PCB levels in Harbour Porpoises from the Baltic Sea region were up to 254% higher than mean levels of PCBs in corresponding samples from the Kattegat and Skagerrak (Berggren et al. 1999). TEQ values of dioxins, dioxin-like PCBs and chloro-organic contaminants in Herring fillets sampled at 11 locations from west of the British Isles to the Latvian coast in the Baltic Proper during 1996-2004 show an increase of about 35 fold from west to east (Karl and Ruoff 2007).
Different sources of underwater noise are considered to be a medium or high threat (ICES 2019). Hearing impairment is a major problem for porpoises as they rely on their biosonar to catch prey, communicate and orientate. With respect to behavioural responses to, or avoidance of, noise, spectral characteristics of the received sounds are important. Harbour Porpoises are especially sensitive to the mid- (1–10 kHz) and high-frequency (>10 kHz) part of the spectrum at which they show behavioural reactions. Even low levels of mid- and/or high-frequency components may elicit a response to broadband sounds (Dyndo et al. 2015). Due to the low salinity in the Baltic Sea, the absorption of sound is less than in oceanic waters (Andersson et al. 2016, Andersson and Johansson 2013). This results in increased received levels of mid- and high-frequency sounds, and greater disturbance ranges, than in oceanic environments. In addition, sound channels typically occurring in the Baltic Proper under certain stratification conditions increase disturbance ranges at similar frequencies (Pihl et al. 2011). The most commonly occurring sources of impulsive noise in the Baltic Sea are sonars and seismic surveys (ICES 2022), which may cause temporary threshold shifts (TTS) in hearing sensitivity, avoidance reactions, and reduced foraging rates (Lucke et al. 2009, Sarnocińska et al. 2020, Thompson et al. 2013). Less frequent but much louder are underwater explosions, e.g. from clearance of unexploded ordnance (UXO) or construction work. In the Baltic Sea, approximately 175,000 mines are estimated to have been laid during the world wars and approximately 1,985 mine fields have been identified (Möller 2011). Explosions of UXO have been linked to blast injuries and death of Harbour Porpoises in the Baltic Sea region (Siebert et al. 2022). For the Dutch North Sea, it has been estimated that 88 explosions in a 1-year period for clearing UXO caused between 1,280 and 5,450 events of permanent hearing loss in Harbour Porpoises (Benda-Beckmann et al. 2015), indicating that mine clearance in the Baltic Sea could have a major impact on Harbour Porpoises. Offshore development is still limited but increasing in the Baltic Sea and there are extensive plans for the development of offshore windfarms (4C Offshore 2022). Activities linked to different phases of the life cycle of an offshore windfarm cause impulsive or continuous underwater noise, e.g. seabed exploration, explosions for clearance of cable corridors and wind farm areas, pile driving, turbine operation, and decommissioning. Pile driving may cause displacement and TTS in Harbour Porpoises (Brandt et al. 2011; Dähne et al. 2013, 2017; Tougaard et al. 2009). Continuous noise, such as ship noise or wind farm turbine noise, is widespread, but information on impacts at the individual- and, especially, population-level is largely lacking. However, ship noise is estimated to cause reduced communication distance by masking (Hermannsen et al. 2014) and strong behavioural reactions have been recorded (Dyndo et al. 2015, Wisniewska et al. 2018).
Prey depletion and habitat degradation are deemed to be medium threats to the Baltic Proper Harbour Porpoise subpopulation (ICES 2019). Energy density of the diet appears to be critical in determining reproductive success of female Harbour Porpoises (IJsseldijk et al. 2021), indicating that reduced quality and quantity of Cod, Herring and Sprat, which are three of the main prey species for Baltic Proper Harbour Porpoises, may impede recovery. Since the 1970s, most stocks of commercial-sized Cod, Herring and Sprat in ICES subdivisions 25 and higher in the Baltic Sea have decreased, with the Eastern Baltic Cod stock presently at the lowest level observed since the 1950s (ICES 2021). Eastern Baltic Cod has displayed a regime shift from high reproductive potential before the 1980s to low potential since then (Voss and Quaas 2022). During recent decades, the reduction in Cod status has been driven largely by biological changes, including poor nutritional condition, reduced growth and high natural mortality (ICES 2021). The largest Herring stock, the Central Baltic stock, has decreased since the 1970s (ICES 2021). During recent years, the spawning component of the smaller northern size of Herring has been dominant over the component of the larger southern size in both the landings and in the stock. The spawning stock biomass of Sprat has fluctuated considerably due to a combination of varying fishing pressure, recruitment and natural mortality (the latter linked to Cod biomass). When the Cod biomass was high in the beginning of the 1980s, the Sprat stock was low. This was followed by a rapid increase in Sprat biomass, reaching a maximum in 1996–1997, and at the same time a 40% decline in weight at age. By 2005–2017, the stock biomass had declined again by 45%, but a small increase is estimated by 2023. In addition to fishing pressure and species interactions, climate change and anthropogenic eutrophication are also predicted to be main drivers of the biomass, distribution and condition of Harbour Porpoise prey species in the Baltic Sea (e.g. Bartolino et al. 2014, Bossier et al. 2021, Voss and Quaas 2022).
Habitat loss and habitat degradation caused by high nutrient loads in combination with the hydrogeographic situation of the Baltic Sea, leading to hypoxic and anoxic conditions, may further reduce the potential for recovery of the Baltic Proper Harbour Porpoise subpopulation. Since 1993, hypoxia development in the Baltic Sea has shown two regimes, and there is indication of a third. The first regime was characterised by a three-fold increase of the hypoxic area until 1999, and the second by a stationary process until 2017 (Kõuts et al. 2021). Data showing that anoxia has reached a new stage in 2018–2019, with anoxic conditions regularly occurring in previously hypoxic areas in the southern basins of the Baltic Proper, could be the beginning of a new trend (Hansson et al. 2019).